Turkish economy grew 4% in the third quarter; growth for 2022 estimated at 5%: Reuters poll
Turkish economy is expected to have expanded 4% in the third quarter and will see overall growth of 5% in 2022, according to a Reuters poll on Monday, after the central bank embarked on an easing cycle to counter an economic slowdown despite rampant inflation.
Turkish economy rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic to grow by 11.4% in 2021. It recorded growth of 7.5% in the first quarter and 7.6% in the second, extending its dynamism thanks to solid domestic demand and exports.
But Turkish economy is expected to cool for the rest of the year as both domestic and external demand weaken, partly due to a slowdown in major trading partners which is hurting exports.
Turkish gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be 4% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of 13 economists participating in the Reuters poll. Forecasts ranged between 3.0% and 4.8%.
Given the expected slowdown, 13 economists’ median estimate for GDP growth in 2022 stands at 5%, within a range of 4.50% and 5.60%.
President Tayyip Erdogan’s economic program over the past 14 months has prioritized growth and exports, and aimed to tackle inflation by propping up chronic current account deficits rather than raising rates.
An easing cycle last year led the lira to end the year down 44% against the dollar and it lost another 29% this year, pushing inflation to over 85% in October, its highest level in 24 years.
In August, the central bank started cutting rates again, by another 500 basis points, to 9%. She cited signs of an economic slowdown to justify her easing.
Ankara forecasts 5% growth this year and in 2023.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce third quarter GDP growth data at 0700 GMT on November 30.
